In the News
- The Next FOMC Meeting is January 31, 2024, with an 89.7% probability of no rate hike and 10.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised markets last week with dovish comments on the outlook for interest rates. Fed futures are now pricing in 150 basis points of cuts next year. Additionally, rates have fallen dramatically across the yield curve since the FOMC meeting and comments.
- It appears the dot plot of future interest rates included in the Fed’s periodic summary contains three quarter-point cuts in 2024, whereas the market is pricing in six. However, the Fed’s priority remains to gradually push inflation back to 2%, where it is currently approximately 4%.
- Ehlers will publish its next Issuer & Investor Update on January 4, 2023.
- BVAL AAA Curve = Bloomberg Valuation Service’s real-time and contributed sources tracking movement in the Municipal market.
- BBI = Bond Buyer Index; a daily index of municipal bond prices created by the Chicago Board of Trade and published by The Bond Buyer.
- RBI = Revenue Bond Index; a weekly index of interest rates on revenue bonds.
- 10-Year TSY = 10-Year Treasury index tracking the yield of U.S. Treasury Securities. It is closely watched as an indicator of broader investor confidence.
- SOFR Index = An extension of the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), it measures the cumulative impact of compounding the SOFR on a unit of investment over time (i.e. One Year).
- Fed Funds Rate = Set by the Federal Open Markets Committee, it guides overnight lending between U.S. banks.
*30 Day Visible Supply based on Bloomberg Fixed Rate municipal calendars. Excludes accreted value of capital appreciation bonds and short-term notes. Prior to March 7, 2005, values calculated using full calendar history.
Source: Bloomberg – Rates as of 12/18/23
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