The Next FOMC Meeting is November 1, 2023, with an 99.3% probability of holding steady and 0.7% chance of implementing a 25 basis point rate increase, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The 10-year treasury has flirted with 5% over the past few weeks, which is an important plateau for financial watchers. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated the increase in longer-term rates is a reflection of a strong US economy, not the expansion of government borrowing. The U.S. Economy grew at a 4.9% pace last quarter, which was the fastest expansion since 2021. That pace was more than double second quarter grown, according to a preliminary estimate released by the federal government.

The Next FOMC Meeting is November 1, 2023 with a 92.7% probability of no rate hike and a 7.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate change, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. While the expectation for 2023 was that the US economy would falter under the sharpest rate hikes in decades, even as inflation cooled, the labor market and consumer spending have shown considerable resiliency. At least one major bank is feeling the squeeze of customers seeking higher yields for their cash deposits. Net interest income at Schwab Bank dropped 24% as customers moved cash to higher yielding cash products such as money market funds in a process called "cash sorting."

The Next FOMC Meeting is September 20, 2023 with an 97.0% probability of no rate hike and 3.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate change according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Although the Fed is likely to leave the fund rate unchanged next week, many economists anticipate a continued hawkish Fed stance with the possibility of another hike before year-end. In a research note, asset manager BlackRock sees opportunities for investors to buy state and local debt at attractive prices over the next few months with yields climbing higher this year and seasonally-driven unfavorable supply and demand factors ahead.