21 Jun 2024
Patrick Rooney

Issuer & Investor Update

Large trades in the bond market this week indicate increased odds of a Fed intrest-rate cut in July. According to CME Group, the current probability of a 25 basis point cut stands at 10.3%.
20 May 2024
Patrick Rooney

Issuer & Investor Update

The Fed's target interest rate level remains unchanged at 5.25% - 5.50% after the most recent FOMC meeting this week. Concerning the future path of interest rates and recent inflation data in the US, Powell stated [these] "haven't really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes bumpy road toward 2%."  Expectations of the first rate cut this year now center around the June 2024 meeting. Stocks rallied this week around optimism that the fed will be successful in orchestrating a soft landing for the US economy, pushing the S&P 500 towards its 20th record level this year.
22 Mar 2024
Patrick Rooney

Issuer & Investor Update

The Fed's target interest rate level remains unchanged at 5.25% - 5.50% after the most recent FOMC meeting this week. Concerning the future path of interest rates and recent inflation data in the US, Powell stated [these] "haven't really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes bumpy road toward 2%."  Expectations of the first rate cut this year now center around the June 2024 meeting. Stocks rallied this week around optimism that the fed will be successful in orchestrating a soft landing for the US economy, pushing the S&P 500 towards its 20th record level this year.
23 Jan 2024
Patrick Rooney

Issuer & Investor Update

The Next FOMC Meeting is January 31, 2024 with an 93.3% probability of no rate hike and 6.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Treasury yields rose after data showed US companies ramped up hiring in December and jobless claims came in lower than estimates, potentially indicating a slower normalization of rates. Citigroup, Inc. announced yesterday that it is closing its municipal bond division due to concerns with diminished fees. The CEO stated it is "no longer viable given our commitment to increase the firm's overall returns" and intends to completely wind down operations by the end of the first quarter.
5 Jan 2024
Patrick Rooney

Issuer & Investor Update

The Next FOMC Meeting is January 31, 2024 with an 93.3% probability of no rate hike and 6.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Treasury yields rose after data showed US companies ramped up hiring in December and jobless claims came in lower than estimates, potentially indicating a slower normalization of rates. Citigroup, Inc. announced yesterday that it is closing its municipal bond division due to concerns with diminished fees. The CEO stated it is "no longer viable given our commitment to increase the firm's overall returns" and intends to completely wind down operations by the end of the first quarter.
20 Dec 2023
Patrick Rooney

Issuer & Investor Update

The Next FOMC Meeting is November 1, 2023, with an 99.3% probability of holding steady and 0.7% chance of implementing a 25 basis point rate increase, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The 10-year treasury has flirted with 5% over the past few weeks, which is an important plateau for financial watchers. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated the increase in longer-term rates is a reflection of a strong US economy, not the expansion of government borrowing. The U.S. Economy grew at a 4.9% pace last quarter, which was the fastest expansion since 2021. That pace was more than double second quarter grown, according to a preliminary estimate released by the federal government.
27 Oct 2023
Patrick Rooney

Issuer & Investor Update

The Next FOMC Meeting is November 1, 2023, with an 99.3% probability of holding steady and 0.7% chance of implementing a 25 basis point rate increase, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The 10-year treasury has flirted with 5% over the past few weeks, which is an important plateau for financial watchers. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated the increase in longer-term rates is a reflection of a strong US economy, not the expansion of government borrowing. The U.S. Economy grew at a 4.9% pace last quarter, which was the fastest expansion since 2021. That pace was more than double second quarter grown, according to a preliminary estimate released by the federal government.
16 Oct 2023
Patrick Rooney

Issuer & Investor Update

The Next FOMC Meeting is November 1, 2023 with a 92.7% probability of no rate hike and a 7.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate change, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. While the expectation for 2023 was that the US economy would falter under the sharpest rate hikes in decades, even as inflation cooled, the labor market and consumer spending have shown considerable resiliency. At least one major bank is feeling the squeeze of customers seeking higher yields for their cash deposits. Net interest income at Schwab Bank dropped 24% as customers moved cash to higher yielding cash products such as money market funds in a process called "cash sorting."
15 Sep 2023
Patrick Rooney

Issuer & Investor Updates

The Next FOMC Meeting is September 20, 2023 with an 97.0% probability of no rate hike and 3.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate change according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Although the Fed is likely to leave the fund rate unchanged next week, many economists anticipate a continued hawkish Fed stance with the possibility of another hike before year-end. In a research note, asset manager BlackRock sees opportunities for investors to buy state and local debt at attractive prices over the next few months with yields climbing higher this year and seasonally-driven unfavorable supply and demand factors ahead.
18 Aug 2023

Issuer & Investor Updates

The Next FOMC Meeting is July 26, 2023 with a 92.4% probability of a 25 basis point hike and 7.6% chance of no rate change according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Treasury yields rose across the curve after the ADP jobs report and extended their climb after data showing the service sector expanded in June at the fastest pace in four months. Municipal-bond issuance nationally started to recover in June, marking the first month in 2023 where new issue sales rose year-over-year. Municipalities were likely waiting to see if rates would come down but eventually needed to tap the market for impending project needs.