To say a lot has changed in the bond market this year would be a major understatement"¦changes that can largely be attributed to the actions taken by the Federal Reserve to combat persistent inflation. Let's review where we've been, where we are today, and where we're likely headed in 2023.
The U.S. Treasury Secretary and World Bank spoke on inflation expectations, municipal yields drop, and bond funds see first inflows of the year, breaking a long streak of outflows. GFOA talks about revising best practices on debt and the challenge of hiring at the municipal level.
Financial markets have remained volatile as investors take stock of the Federal Reserve's efforts to tame inflation. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stated that officials broadly agreed that additional 50-basis point (1 basis point = 0.01%) increases could be warranted in June and July given current economic conditions, but others have stated a 75-basis point increase cannot be ruled out.
Equity markets declined significantly following Fed Chair Powell's recent public remarks as we proceed toward the May FOMC meeting. Municipal Bond yields follow in line with U.S Treasuries.
March's inflation data brought more bad news, but there were some potential bright spots. A historic first quarter in the muni market and recent trends look like they will continue.
Broad bond market indices have suffered through the first quarter of 2022, producing some of the worst returns on record. Municipals have not been spared during this time, as year-to-date outflows from municipal mutual funds have already exceeded those for the entirety of 2022.
A light week in the municipal bond market in expectation of the widely anticipated rate hike from the Federal Open Market Committee that meets mid-week.
Inflation concerns persist, and it appears to be taking its toll, as after-tax income and consumer confidence drop. Geopolitical factors will be monitored closely but have not changed expectations that interest rates will rise in 2022.
With plenty of uncertainty moving into the second half of February, financial markets continue to grapple with volatility. Equities are on a roller coaster and muni yields continue to trend upward.
The Federal Open Market Committee emerged from its policy meeting last week with its statement on monetary policy and the market takes note. Volatility dominated nearly all financial markets in the first month of 2022.
2022: The Year In Review
Updates on Inflation, Municipal Yields and GFOA Talks About Amending its Debt Policies and Challenges of Public Sector Recruiting/Retention
Markets Remain Volatile as Observers Assess if Recent Action by the Fed Can Curb Inflation
Markets Growing Anxious About May’s Federal Open Market Committee Meeting As We All Digest Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s Comments Regarding a Half-Point Rate Increase.
Difficult First Quarter of 2022 for the Municipal Market & Some Inflation Insights
Trend of Rising Rates Continues and Yield Curve Flattens Further
Municipal Bond Markets Quiet this Week in Light of Geopolitical Uncertainty & FOMC Meeting
Inflation & Pace of Rate Increases Still Front & Center
What Will Come Next?
Volatility Prevails as We Begin 2022