The Next FOMC Meeting is September 20, 2023 with an 97.0% probability of no rate hike and 3.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate change according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Although the Fed is likely to leave the fund rate unchanged next week, many economists anticipate a continued hawkish Fed stance with the possibility of another hike before year-end. In a research note, asset manager BlackRock sees opportunities for investors to buy state and local debt at attractive prices over the next few months with yields climbing higher this year and seasonally-driven unfavorable supply and demand factors ahead.

The Next FOMC Meeting is July 26, 2023 with a 92.4% probability of a 25 basis point hike and 7.6% chance of no rate change according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Treasury yields rose across the curve after the ADP jobs report and extended their climb after data showing the service sector expanded in June at the fastest pace in four months. Municipal-bond issuance nationally started to recover in June, marking the first month in 2023 where new issue sales rose year-over-year. Municipalities were likely waiting to see if rates would come down but eventually needed to tap the market for impending project needs.

The Next FOMC Meeting is July 26, 2023 with a 92.4% probability of a 25 basis point hike and 7.6% chance of no rate change according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Treasury yields rose across the curve after the ADP jobs report and extended their climb after data showing the service sector expanded in June at the fastest pace in four months. Municipal-bond issuance nationally started to recover in June, marking the first month in 2023 where new issue sales rose year-over-year. Municipalities were likely waiting to see if rates would come down but eventually needed to tap the market for impending project needs.

Updated for June 15, 2023: The FOMC Meeting announced no increase to the targeted Fed Funds rate after its policy meeting this week.

The Next FOMC Meeting is Wednesday, May 3, 2023 with a 70.7% probability of a 25 basis point increase according to CME Group's Fed Watch Tool. US employers added 236,000 below expectations and indicating the labor market is cooling off amid Federal Reserve's repeated rate-hikes. Supply remains low for new issue municipal bonds. This week an estimated $5.4 billion supply but two issues -- California GO and San Francisco Public Utilities Commission -- made up 66% of this volume.

The Next FOMC Meeting is Wednesday, May 3, 2023 with a 70.7% probability of a 25 basis point increase according to CME Group's Fed Watch Tool. US employers added 236,000 below expectations and indicating the labor market is cooling off amid Federal Reserve's repeated rate-hikes. Supply remains low for new issue municipal bonds. This week an estimated $5.4 billion supply but two issues -- California GO and San Francisco Public Utilities Commission -- made up 66% of this volume.

The Next FOMC Meeting is Wednesday, March 22, 2023 with a 64.6% probability of a 50 basis point rate hike according to CME Group Fed Watch Tool. Chair Powell's comments this week indicate and even greater likelihood of aggressive Fed action to bring inflation back to acceptable levels. Data released Wednesday suggested the labor market remains strong. ADP reported private-sector jobs rose 242,000 in February, surpassing the 195,000 estimated to have been added by economists polled by IFR Markets.

The Next FOMC Meeting is Wednesday, March 22, 2023 with a 64.6% probability of a 50 basis point rate hike according to CME Group Fed Watch Tool. Chair Powell's comments this week indicate and even greater likelihood of aggressive Fed action to bring inflation back to acceptable levels. Data released Wednesday suggested the labor market remains strong. ADP reported private-sector jobs rose 242,000 in February, surpassing the 195,000 estimated to have been added by economists polled by IFR Markets.

The Next FOMC Meeting is Wednesday, March 22, 2023 with a 73.0% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike according to CME Group's Fed Watch Tool. Recent FOMC minutes indicate participants remain concerned about still-high inflation and committed to bringing it down to the target 2%. Muni bond yields are up across the curve, increasing ratios to US treasuries, showing relative weakness of tax-exempts to table alternatives.

The Next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is Wednesday, March 22, 2023.  According to CME Group Fed Watch Tool, there is a 96.7% probability of another 25 basis point rate hike. The U.S. added 517,000 new jobs in January, well above the 187,000 forecast.  These results are drawing concerns about the Fed's prolonged tightening measures. On a relative basis, short munis are yielding about 50% of Treasuries, a ratio far below a 12-month average at 67%. This means munis are currently quite expensive.